What Stock Prices Tell Us About Economic Activity — And When They Don't
Financial markets are often seen as forward-looking barometers of economic health. But the COVID-19 pandemic exposed a striking disconnect between soaring equity prices and collapsing real activity. This post unpacks the key findings from our IMF Economic Review paper and what they mean for how policymakers read market signals.
Read postMore Posts
Measuring Policy Uncertainty: A Primer on the EPU Index
How do economists quantify something as nebulous as "uncertainty"? A deep dive into text-based uncertainty indices and their applications.
What C-Suite Executives Pay Attention To: Lessons from NLP
A summary of the PyData Global 2021 talk — how we used machine learning to measure managerial attention from earnings call transcripts.
Leverage Dynamics and the Limits of Managerial Attention
Why do firms deviate from their target leverage ratios for so long? This post walks through the central argument of my job market paper.
China VIX: Constructing a Volatility Index for an Emerging Market
The methodology behind our China VIX index — why standard VIX construction doesn't translate directly, and how we adapted it.
From Economist to Quant: What Transfers and What Doesn't
Reflections on moving from academic macro research into quantitative investing — the surprising overlaps and the real skill gaps.
Reading the Fed: How Markets Interpret Policy Communication
Central bank communication has become a policy tool in its own right. How do text analysis methods help decode Fed minutes and FOMC statements?
Stay in the loop
New posts on economics, markets, and research — straight to your inbox.